Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India

The present paper presents the supply and demand trends of rice, wheat, total cereals, pulses, edible oil/oilseeds and sugar/sugarcane. It provides the demand and supply projections for food items during 2011, 2021 and 2026. These projections have been based on change in productivity levels, changes in price, growth of population and income growth. A comparison with projections provided by other scholars has also been made in the paper. Subsequently, the future supply-demand gap has been discussed in the light of policy requirements. It is concluded that an increase in total demand is mainly due to growth in population and per capita income. A diversification in consumption basket significantly away from cereals has been observed. On the supply side, production is constrained by low yield growths. This is more specific in context of total cereals and sugarcane. While in the short and medium term, there might be surplus of cereals in the country, these prospects are likely to diminish in the years to come. This situation is even more alarming for edible oil, sugarcane and pulses. To meet the future food requirements, the country shall have to either increase agricultural production, or depend on imports. In this light, the paper suggests that the policy focus needs to be laid, towards productivity enhancement in agriculture, through public investment in irrigation, development of roads, research and extension.Q11, Q18

Trends in Pulse and Oilseed Crops in Winter Cereal Rotations in NSW

The key aims in this study are to assess the current level of importance of pulse and oilseed (broadleaf) crops in winter cereal rotations in NSW, and to identify recent trends. The production of broadleaf crops has increased in each region of NSW, but different crops have been favoured. Canola has played a key role in southern regions, and chickpea in the northern regions. In many areas, pulse crops have been grown more because of rotational benefits than their direct gross margins. If recent trends continue, the role of broadleaf crops will increase to 25% of the area sown to field crops in NSW by 2020. However, that will only be achieved with a focussed effort in both research and extension activities.broadleaf crop, oilseed, pulse, production, rotation, NSW, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q160,

Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India

The present paper presents the supply and demand trends of rice, wheat, total cereals, pulses, edible oil/oilseeds and sugar/sugarcane. It provides the demand and supply projections for food items during 2011, 2021 and 2026. These projections have been based on change in productivity levels, changes in price, growth of population and income growth. A comparison with projections provided by other scholars has also been made in the paper. Subsequently, the future supply-demand gap has been discussed in the light of policy requirements. It is concluded that an increase in total demand is mainly due to growth in population and per capita income. A diversification in consumption basket significantly away from cereals has been observed. On the supply side, production is constrained by low yield growths. This is more specific in context of total cereals and sugarcane. While in the short and medium term, there might be surplus of cereals in the country, these prospects are likely to diminish in the years to come. This situation is even more alarming for edible oil, sugarcane and pulses. To meet the future food requirements, the country shall have to either increase agricultural production, or depend on imports. In this light, the paper suggests that the policy focus needs to be laid, towards productivity enhancement in agriculture, through public investment in irrigation, development of roads, research and extension.Demand Projection, Supply Projection, India, Food grains

Sources of agricultural growth in India: role of diversification towards high-value crops

"This study examines the sources of crop income growth in Indian agriculture over the 1980s and 1990s. Using a method developed by Minot (2003), the analysis decomposes crop income growth into the contribution of yield increases, area expansion, price increases, and diversification from low-value crops to higher-value crops. The results confirm that at the national level, technology (higher yield) was the main source of crop income growth during 1980s, while rising prices and diversification emerged as the dominant sources of growth in agriculture during 1990s. Diversification towards higher-value crops such as fruits and vegetables accounted for about 27% of crop income growth in the 1980s and 31% in the 1990s. However, these national averages hide substantial regional variation. In the grain-dominated northern and eastern regions, price increases were the most important source of growth during 1990s, while in the southern and western regions crop income growth was led by diversification into higher-value crops. The results reflect the slowing growth of wheat and rice yields in India, as well as the growing importance of diversification into higher-value crops. Restoring the growth in grain yields will require investment in agricultural research and development, while facilitating further diversification involves institutional development to better link small farmers with growing markets for high-value commodities. " Author's AbstractCrops, income growth, Agriculture, Grain production, Agricultural research, Research and development, High value commodities, Crop yields, Prices, High-value crops, Decomposition,

Pattern of Agricultural Diversification in India

Agricultural diversification as measured by increase in the percent of non-food crops has grown; whereas diversification as measured by the concentration indices has remained unchanged in the recent decade. There have been significant changes in the pattern of agricultural diversification at the regional level. Within a region, smaller sub-regions or pockets of specialization in certain crops and crop-groups have emerged. Farms do not remain diversified and the usual notion of crop diversification as a risk management practice is also belied in the present study. The study also found certain kind of structural changes in all sub-sectors of agriculture : crop, livestock, and fisheries. Concerns over extreme effects of such changes are however, not valid.agricultural diversification, Agriculture Analysis, India, non-food crops, crop, livestock, and fisheries

Agricultural Processing and the WA Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper investigates the impact of an expansion in agricultural processing on the Western Australian economy by modifying and applying a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) economic model of Western Australia (called WAM). WAM was used to simulate the effects of a $1 million expansion in eight agricultural processing industries. The results show that there is a range of positive impacts from agricultural processing. On average, a$1 million expansion in agricultural processing is estimated to increase the State’s GSP (Gross State Product) by $649,000, and total output by$1.9 million. The expansion of the Wine and spirits industry is estimated to have the largest impact while the Textile fibres, yarns and woven fabrics industry has the smallest impact on the Western Australian economy.Agricultural processing, CGE model, Agribusiness,

High-Value Agriculture in India: Past Trends and Future Prospects

Given the declining share of traditional agricultural commodities in production, consumption and trade, horticulture and other non-traditional high-value agriculture represent an important area of potential income growth in rural areas. The high-value agriculture-led-growth strategy also provides significant scope for achieving greater commercialization of smallholder agriculture. Despite the potential, the contribution of high-value agricultural exports is still small but increasing. This paper examines the past and existing performance and identifies likely challenges and opportunities for high-value-agriculture in the country. The findings of the study reveal a structural shift in consumption pattern away from cereals to high-value agricultural commodities, both in rural and urban areas, in the last two decades. This shift in dietary patterns across states and income classes is also observed. The results reveal a relatively strong and growing demand for livestock products and fruits and vegetables in both rural and urban areas. The average expenditure as well as share of beverages has increased by about six times in both rural and urban areas. Due to shift in demand pattern towards high-value crops, the farmers have also responded to market signals and gradually shifting production-mix to meet the growing demand for high-value commodities. This is reflected in the changing share of high value crops in total value of output from agriculture. The share of high-value commodities/products (fruits and vegetables, livestock products, fisheries) increased from 37.3 percent in Triennium Ending (TE) 1983-84 to 41.3 percent in TE 1993.94 and reached a level of 47.4 percent in TE 2007-08. The trade in high-value products has also increased during the last decade. Overall, fresh fruits and vegetables exports represent a very small share of domestic production and agricultural exports but have increased significantly. During the 2000s, the growth rate in value of exports of rice, sugar, marine products, tea, etc. declined, while high-value exports (fruits and vegetables, floriculture, meat, processed fruit juices) grew by about 18 percent annually. However, Indian exports face many constraints in major importing countries on account of quality and food safety issues. The rising demand for high-value commodities, particularly fruits and vegetables and livestock products has led to an increase in imports of many commodities like fresh fruits. While there is an opportunity for increasing exports of high-value products but there is a huge and increasing domestic demand which needs to be tapped. The study suggests that a future road map for high-value agriculture development should focus on investment in technology development and dissemination, basic infrastructure, improvement of technical capacity of producers and other players in the value chain, institutional support in core functions of production, logistics and marketing through concerted public sector support and active public-private partnerships, and provision of quality inputs, in particular planting materials for fruits and seeds for vegetables.

Development domains for Ethiopia: capturing the geographical context of smallholder development options

"The choices that smallholder farmers are able to make are strongly conditioned by the geographic conditions in which they live. The importance of this fact for rural development strategy is not lost on policy makers. For example, the government of Ethiopia frequently frames policy discussions by broadly different geographical conditions of moisture availability, recognizing moisture reliable, drought prone and pastoralist areas. These conditions are seen as important criteria for determining the nature, extent and priority of development interventions for different parts of the country. There is considerable evidence, however, that other geographical factors also have important implications for rural development options. This paper uses agroecology, access to markets, and population density to define development domains: geographical locations sharing broadly similar rural development constraints and opportunities. Unlike similar efforts conducted elsewhere, this work is unique in that it seeks to move away from a subjective mapping of factors of theorized importance to a more rigorous definition of development domains on the basis of quantitative data on smallholder livelihood strategies. After selecting variables for mapping, we calibrate our definition for domains in such a way that their explanatory power is maximized across a range of livelihood strategies that figure in the current Ethiopian rural development discourse (market engagement, dependence upon agriculture, etc.)." Authors' AbstractSmallholders, Small farmers, Geographic conditions, rural development strategies, Development policy, Agro-ecology, Market access, Livelihoods, Population density,

International Trade, Food Security and the Response to the WTO in South Asian Countries

trade liberalization, WTO, food security, imports, self-sufficiency, subsidies, OECD, agriculture, price volality